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Post by UConnChapette on Mar 16, 2020 11:25:18 GMT -5
With all due respect, if you do that (keeping extra inventory of staples), you're going to be part of the problem not part of the solution.
With the exception of hand sanitizer and possibly disinfecting cleaners., each of those products has a very stable selling pattern, and the manufacturers know that, within a very narrow range, the American public will use X amount of, say, toilet paper in a year. Are you and your family really going to use more toilet paper in March than you did in February? Are you going to wash dishes or clothes more often? Are you going to use more TP in April (or December?) than you did in March? No -- you and your family are going to use roughly (pardon the expression) the same amount of toilet paper every week. Ditto for every household in America.
Since the industry knows how much toilet paper (or dishwashing liquid etc) will be used, and what their percentage of the market is, they fine tune their production and inventory levels so that they (and their supply chain) have enough, but just enough, to satisfy the demand for a product for which demand is as flat as a two-ply sheet of Kleenex.
To the extent the producers ramp up production by working overtime in March, they're going to have to reduce production at some point because, when things eventually settle down, as they surely will, the American people will be, um, s(h)itting, on an excessive amount of inventory.
And no matter how much the producers SELL in March, because of illusory consumer demand, those extra March sales will come at the expense of sales in April or May or some month downstream, because the USAGE, over time, isn't really going to change.
Bottom (pardon the expression) line: those who are buying extra toilet paper because they think the TP industry won't be able to keep the retail outlets supplied with enough product to match the actual demand, as opposed to the imagined demand, is beyond stupid.
Because the actual demand is not going to change. Are the people who are loading up their shopping carts with multiple cases of TP really going to up their excremental output over the next month to justify their idiotic buying habits?
I think you misunderstood. I am not talking about stockpiling. I am talking about being sure I have ONE in reserve of things like a few extra bars of hand soap, one extra hand sanitizer, one extra package of 36 rolls of TP (which is my normal buying habit from BJ's), one extra bottle of dishwashing detergent, one extra laundry detergent, etc. I have never gone crazy on any of that stuff and I am not going to start. I, unlike my sister, did not stockpile 400 pounds of rice for Y2K survival. I keep a backup of certain items. Like...ONE extra on hand for when the current runs out. That is no different than my normal buying habits - with the exception of hand sanitizer. I have never been a regular purchaser of this, but I will be now. But just one in reserve. And this is only because of the current "panic" buying, not because I don't think I will NEVER be able to buy these items for years. The point is, I couldn't buy those things right now if I needed them. So I want to have JUST ENOUGH in the house so I don't need to go to the store for these things. Nothing more, nothing less. In a crisis that would impact supply lines and mean fresh food and staples and not available, I will likely be one of the first to succomb because I don't have the survivalist hoarding tendencies. I just means there will be more for the rest of you.
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Post by UConnChapette on Mar 16, 2020 11:39:59 GMT -5
I am doing well today, just bummed that the much awaited selection Monday is not to be.
Stay healthy, my friends!
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Post by chicagogg on Mar 16, 2020 11:54:46 GMT -5
CT, NY, NJ heading for semi lock-down...gyms, bars casinos closing by 8 tonight for indefinite period.Restaurants take out only. On a happier note - I was able to buy some bread today!! Now I am just looking for butter and a few canned goods. Couldn't get any flour, tho, We had dusted off the bread machine, just in case. Be careful out there!
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Post by UConnChapette on Mar 16, 2020 12:05:46 GMT -5
CT, NY, NJ heading for semi lock-down...gyms, bars casinos closing by 8 tonight for indefinite period.Restaurants take out only. On a happier note - I was able to buy some bread today!! Now I am just looking for butter and a few canned goods. Couldn't get any flour, tho, We had dusted off the bread machine, just in case. Be careful out there! I am not going to any store until at least Friday. I am hoping by then the "must buy everything I can RIGHT NOW!" madness dies down. I have enough for probably another week or two. Besides, my husband has the stores covered. He is still going into Petsmart to volunteer with the kitties. As long as the kitties are in the store, he will be out and about and will be stopping at places like Walmart and grocery stores to look for things like eggs which we are running low on.
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Post by rockymtblue2 on Mar 16, 2020 12:43:20 GMT -5
Modest tweak of a knee dictates that I stay out of the gym today. Should be good tomorrow. I don't think our state government has closed such facilities, but the local schools have been closed for 2 weeks. What 2 weeks is all about I have not a clue. My school teacher daughter figure the closure will be extended 'til the end of the school year.
She tells me there are reports of 4 cases actually in MT, but Ihave not seen a report.
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Post by samanthabrown3 on Mar 16, 2020 12:51:52 GMT -5
Has anyone else noticed that the food you really want to eat is the only one you don’t have any of? 😀
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Post by UConnChapette on Mar 16, 2020 12:54:05 GMT -5
Modest tweak of a knee dictates that I stay out of the gym today. Should be good tomorrow. I don't think our state government has closed such facilities, but the local schools have been closed for 2 weeks. What 2 weeks is all about I have not a clue. My school teacher daughter figure the closure will be extended 'til the end of the school year. She tells me there are reports of 4 cases actually in MT, but Ihave not seen a report. I think CT will be mandating gyms close down. I thought I saw something along these lines at some point this morning. I will have to double check.
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Post by samanthabrown3 on Mar 16, 2020 12:54:40 GMT -5
With all due respect, if you do that (keeping extra inventory of staples), you're going to be part of the problem not part of the solution.
With the exception of hand sanitizer and possibly disinfecting cleaners., each of those products has a very stable selling pattern, and the manufacturers know that, within a very narrow range, the American public will use X amount of, say, toilet paper in a year. Are you and your family really going to use more toilet paper in March than you did in February? Are you going to wash dishes or clothes more often? Are you going to use more TP in April (or December?) than you did in March? No -- you and your family are going to use roughly (pardon the expression) the same amount of toilet paper every week. Ditto for every household in America.
Since the industry knows how much toilet paper (or dishwashing liquid etc) will be used, and what their percentage of the market is, they fine tune their production and inventory levels so that they (and their supply chain) have enough, but just enough, to satisfy the demand for a product for which demand is as flat as a two-ply sheet of Kleenex.
To the extent the producers ramp up production by working overtime in March, they're going to have to reduce production at some point because, when things eventually settle down, as they surely will, the American people will be, um, s(h)itting, on an excessive amount of inventory.
And no matter how much the producers SELL in March, because of illusory consumer demand, those extra March sales will come at the expense of sales in April or May or some month downstream, because the USAGE, over time, isn't really going to change.
Bottom (pardon the expression) line: those who are buying extra toilet paper because they think the TP industry won't be able to keep the retail outlets supplied with enough product to match the actual demand, as opposed to the imagined demand, is beyond stupid.
Because the actual demand is not going to change. Are the people who are loading up their shopping carts with multiple cases of TP really going to up their excremental output over the next month to justify their idiotic buying habits?
Did I say this? I don’t remember doing that, and it doesn’t sound like me.
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Post by samanthabrown3 on Mar 16, 2020 12:55:58 GMT -5
Modest tweak of a knee dictates that I stay out of the gym today. Should be good tomorrow. I don't think our state government has closed such facilities, but the local schools have been closed for 2 weeks. What 2 weeks is all about I have not a clue. My school teacher daughter figure the closure will be extended 'til the end of the school year. She tells me there are reports of 4 cases actually in MT, but Ihave not seen a report. I think CT will be mandating gyms close down. I thought I saw something along these lines at some point this morning. I will have to double check. Yeah, they’re on the same page as NYS and NJ. Gyms closing at 8 PM tonight.
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Post by UConnChapette on Mar 16, 2020 13:01:43 GMT -5
Modest tweak of a knee dictates that I stay out of the gym today. Should be good tomorrow. I don't think our state government has closed such facilities, but the local schools have been closed for 2 weeks. What 2 weeks is all about I have not a clue. My school teacher daughter figure the closure will be extended 'til the end of the school year. She tells me there are reports of 4 cases actually in MT, but Ihave not seen a report. I think CT will be mandating gyms close down. I thought I saw something along these lines at some point this morning. I will have to double check. Gyms, restaurants, movie theaters, bars and casinos will close at 8:00 PM tonight. This may kill some of these businesses. Restaurants will be allowed take-out and delivery.
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Post by UConnChapette on Mar 16, 2020 13:18:31 GMT -5
Has anyone else noticed that the food you really want to eat is the only one you don’t have any of? 😀 I have noticed the candy aisle is about the only aisle that seems unaffected, at least the last time I was in the store last week. But this is not a healthy food source.
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Post by rockymtblue2 on Mar 16, 2020 13:28:26 GMT -5
I suspect that before to long I'll be ordering victuals on line and 2 hours later picking them up at the store.
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Post by swash on Mar 16, 2020 13:31:44 GMT -5
Did I say this? I don’t remember doing that, and it doesn’t sound like me. This was a post from yetanotherwilliams
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Post by chicagogg on Mar 16, 2020 13:33:02 GMT -5
Plenty of candy, snacks, sodas. Water, fresh meat, not so much. Hope this abates a little. I don't like living out of cans and on eggs. Do have some frozen ground beef, tho... and plenty of tuna fish! Maybe I will do my part and take out from restaurants....
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Post by samanthabrown3 on Mar 16, 2020 14:35:51 GMT -5
Did I say this? I don’t remember doing that, and it doesn’t sound like me. This was a post from yetanotherwilliams Oh, good. It's got my name on top of it.
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Post by rockymtblue2 on Mar 16, 2020 14:45:06 GMT -5
Plenty of candy, snacks, sodas. Water, fresh meat, not so much. Hope this abates a little. I don't like living out of cans and on eggs. Do have some frozen ground beef, tho... and plenty of tuna fish! Maybe I will do my part and take out from restaurants.... Yesterday I was picking up tuna fish when it dawned on me: I really detest canned tuna. Too much mayo and relish makes it edible, but I'd rather deal with those eggs you mentioned.
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Post by chicagogg on Mar 16, 2020 15:58:59 GMT -5
Oh, I love eggs - just not too many days in a row! Although a new Harvard study shows that one egg a day is not a problem.
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Post by bulkey on Mar 16, 2020 16:41:45 GMT -5
article about the toilet paper crunch in the WSJ concludes:
Sales of toilet paper and other non-perishable, non-consumable goods will likely slow down considerably for a while after the coronavirus situation stabilizes, said Bill Simon, former CEO of Walmart U.S. The purchase frequency for items such as toilet paper is consistent and predictable, he said.
“You don’t use more toilet paper because you have it,” he said. “If you bought three bags of Doritos, you’ll eat them.”
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Post by UConnChapette on Mar 16, 2020 17:00:13 GMT -5
article about the toilet paper crunch in the WSJ concludes: Sales of toilet paper and other non-perishable, non-consumable goods will likely slow down considerably for a while after the coronavirus situation stabilizes, said Bill Simon, former CEO of Walmart U.S. The purchase frequency for items such as toilet paper is consistent and predictable, he said.
“You don’t use more toilet paper because you have it,” he said. “If you bought three bags of Doritos, you’ll eat them.”Assuming you can find Doritos.
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Post by bulkey on Mar 16, 2020 19:45:37 GMT -5
My fav is salt-free pretzels. I admit to having bought and stored several bags..
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Post by radylady on Mar 16, 2020 21:02:00 GMT -5
With all due respect, if you do that (keeping extra inventory of staples), you're going to be part of the problem not part of the solution.
With the exception of hand sanitizer and possibly disinfecting cleaners., each of those products has a very stable selling pattern, and the manufacturers know that, within a very narrow range, the American public will use X amount of, say, toilet paper in a year. Are you and your family really going to use more toilet paper in March than you did in February? Are you going to wash dishes or clothes more often? Are you going to use more TP in April (or December?) than you did in March? No -- you and your family are going to use roughly (pardon the expression) the same amount of toilet paper every week. Ditto for every household in America.
Since the industry knows how much toilet paper (or dishwashing liquid etc) will be used, and what their percentage of the market is, they fine tune their production and inventory levels so that they (and their supply chain) have enough, but just enough, to satisfy the demand for a product for which demand is as flat as a two-ply sheet of Kleenex.
To the extent the producers ramp up production by working overtime in March, they're going to have to reduce production at some point because, when things eventually settle down, as they surely will, the American people will be, um, s(h)itting, on an excessive amount of inventory.
And no matter how much the producers SELL in March, because of illusory consumer demand, those extra March sales will come at the expense of sales in April or May or some month downstream, because the USAGE, over time, isn't really going to change.
Bottom (pardon the expression) line: those who are buying extra toilet paper because they think the TP industry won't be able to keep the retail outlets supplied with enough product to match the actual demand, as opposed to the imagined demand, is beyond stupid.
Because the actual demand is not going to change. Are the people who are loading up their shopping carts with multiple cases of TP really going to up their excremental output over the next month to justify their idiotic buying habits?
What the fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuukh?
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Post by radylady on Mar 16, 2020 21:06:42 GMT -5
article about the toilet paper crunch in the WSJ concludes: Sales of toilet paper and other non-perishable, non-consumable goods will likely slow down considerably for a while after the coronavirus situation stabilizes, said Bill Simon, former CEO of Walmart U.S. The purchase frequency for items such as toilet paper is consistent and predictable, he said.
“You don’t use more toilet paper because you have it,” he said. “If you bought three bags of Doritos, you’ll eat them.”There was an article....in the Wall Street Journal...about toilet paper? TP? Bottom buffers? Oh, what a world! I guess there was nothing else to write about, huh.. (cough 3K point drop cough cough)
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Post by radylady on Mar 16, 2020 21:08:29 GMT -5
Walmart and Stop & Shop (local grocery store) are reducing operating hours to allow more time to restock shelves. But I have heard lines form before opening. I, for one, will change my purchasing habits once this dies down. Not going crazy, but making sure I have a backup supply of things like toilet paper, dish soap, disinfecting cleaners, laundry detergent, hand soap and hand sanitizer for personal use. Shame on those who purchased mass quantities looking to make a huge profit when supplies are scarce and demand is high. I wonder if we might see some state or federal laws enacted that will limit quantities of product purchases to make it harder for these profiteers to take advantage of people who just want one package of toilet paper or one bottle of hand sanitizer. Amazon blocked the seller who bought up all the hand sanitizer and then started to re-sell it at a profit. www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.htmlWhat a guy. He got his a$$ kicked for his efforts...and ended up donating quite a lot of it.
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Post by huskyharper on Mar 16, 2020 21:21:20 GMT -5
A couple of quick comments: 1. The Chopin waltz is wonderful. My mother played piano, and I miss it terribly.
2. When I retired one thing I noticed was the cost of toilet paper in my budget rose exponentially - to the number of hours I was home instead of in the office, using their toilet paper. Bwahahahaha, it's one of life's little back-biters that catches up with you.
While we had agility class today for our dogs, I suspect we might not have family dog class on Thursday as the Gov really wants us all to stay home. My agility dog did an excellent job, as usual. His handler, on the other hand was a tad wonky at times. That would of course be me. He doesn't need class, I do.
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Post by radylady on Mar 16, 2020 21:24:23 GMT -5
I am fracking freezing! I think that my sleezy landlord shut off the GD heat! I am fine. Cold, but fine. I am also pretty cranky. Two words and I will move on. feckin' idgit.
and I am being polite.
Nothing has changed (except I am cold, and this time it's because it's cold in here, not because I had something going on the other night.) I have food, enough for 3+ cats and one dog and myself. After proudly posting that I didn't do laundry yesterday, I ended up doing laundry, changing the sheets and cleaning the bathroom(s)...did I mention 3 plus cats?, and put away the bulk items purchased to see me through this quarantine - I managed to find room (miracle).
Bloody overachiever that I am, I even dusted. What the hell is wrong with me?
I worked too long today, and I have only myself to blame. I did not practice. I did not waste time doing stupid stuff. I cleaned nothing. I refuse to clean anything, although I did scoop the litter box. That's not cleaning. That's self preservation.
And yes, tonight is Selection night...and nothing was selected, and I don't have to tell you how that sucks. Please. you all should know. and if you don't, please go back to TOB and complain...they may be having a lull.
So this is me cranky. There is a difference between cranky and bitchy...Let's hope you never have evidence to compare the two.
Oh, and on a scale of one to 10, I am a 10 although after today, that has lost all meaning...and value.
Rady out.
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