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Post by doggydaddy on Mar 27, 2024 20:48:17 GMT -5
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Post by vtcwbuff on Mar 27, 2024 21:19:21 GMT -5
Have you thought about adding a fouls line to your comparative stats?
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Post by doggydaddy on Mar 27, 2024 22:09:12 GMT -5
Have you thought about adding a fouls line to your comparative stats? Not sure what stat you mean. |
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Post by phil on Mar 28, 2024 7:25:53 GMT -5
I assume the suggestion is that in addition to points per game, blocks per game etc. add fouls committed per game
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Post by phil on Mar 28, 2024 7:50:26 GMT -5
Very nice analysis.
I've watched Duke play several times this season, and your analysis match what I've been seeing. They hang their hat on defense not offense, and play a lot of players. There will be a with the ball in doing than I would have guessed for a Lawson coached team. With 16.9 turnovers per game they are ranked 251.
They pride themselves in that event so I was slightly surprised that their 58 points per game given up ranked only 40th among teams. In fairness, some of the teams ranked near the stop in scoring defense (Albany, Vermont, Norfolk State) Achieve their status by playing low-quality offense. It is mildly interesting that among the nation's leaders in defense most are not ranked teams with the notable exception of South Carolina. Again, this mainly comes from quality of competition. Duke has a tougher strength of schedule than UConn so that helps put their defense of points per game in perspective.
One thing that I missed watching the games is how many blocks they get. No surprise that 6' 6" Kennedy Brown gets a lot of blocks but, nitpick alert, she's not the leading blocker on the team. DD Mention Brown's 1.3 blocks per game, and I saw from the summary stat that the team has 5.7 which led me to wonder where all the other blocks are coming from. That led me to see that Emsbo has a slightly higher average at 1.39 blocks per game, interestingly just a hair's breath ahead of Paige at 1.36. DD mentioned Donovan who comes in with 1.15 blocks per game so they have several shot blockers on team.
I like Lawson but I'm still shaking my head that this team managed to be Ohio State. I watched that game and I still can't tell you how it happened.
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Post by semper on Mar 28, 2024 7:51:40 GMT -5
I really been waiting for this one. Thank you, Doggy!
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Post by swash on Mar 28, 2024 8:36:14 GMT -5
Very nice analysis. I've watched Duke play several times this season, and your analysis match what I've been seeing. They hang their hat on defense not offense, and play a lot of players. There will be a with the ball in doing than I would have guessed for a Lawson coached team. With 16.9 turnovers per game they are ranked 251. They pride themselves in that event so I was slightly surprised that their 58 points per game given up ranked only 40th among teams. In fairness, some of the teams ranked near the stop in scoring defense (Albany, Vermont, Norfolk State) Achieve their status by playing low-quality offense. It is mildly interesting that among the nation's leaders in defense most are not ranked teams with the notable exception of South Carolina. Again, this mainly comes from quality of competition. Duke has a tougher strength of schedule than UConn so that helps put their defense of points per game in perspective. One thing that I missed watching the games is how many blocks they get. No surprise that 6' 6" Kennedy Brown gets a lot of blocks but, nitpick alert, she's not the leading blocker on the team. DD Mention Brown's 1.3 blocks per game, and I saw from the summary stat that the team has 5.7 which led me to wonder where all the other blocks are coming from. That led me to see that Emsbo has a slightly higher average at 1.39 blocks per game, interestingly just a hair's breath ahead of Paige at 1.36. DD mentioned Donovan who comes in with 1.15 blocks per game so they have several shot blockers on team. I like Lawson but I'm still shaking my head that this team managed to be Ohio State. I watched that game and I still can't tell you how it happened. Points per game is a poor substitute for a metric to assess defensive capabilities. It is only used because it is easily available. Some teams play late in every shot clock. That lowers the number of possessions, that therefore lowers the expected output. If both teams are playing a slow half-court game, they'll both have a "great" defense, even if neither actually makes ANY defensive stops. As you mention, the Strength of schedule also matters a ton. Play all games against Iowa vs playing Duke every contest ... same team will look very differently in those two circumstances. Finally, how many times have we seen a team ... that hits a very low percentage of their threes ... sink multiple desperation heaves in the final seconds of the shot clock. Dumb luck offense, can make even a stellar defense look bad. Better ideas might include: -Tell me how many more turnovers a defense caused than their opponents' norm --Same for blocks, steals, EFF (points per possession) and defensive rebounds (or how many fewer offensive boards than the opponent's usual) -How about calculating the average shot clock for opposing offenses to their first shot attempt (rebounds usually come after a clock reset) - turnovers (possessions with no shot attempt are either fully excluded (captured in other metrics above) or credited at max shot clock |
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Post by magic on Mar 28, 2024 9:32:31 GMT -5
How did Duke beat OS ? First of all wcbb just are not as consistent as male players as a whole from game to game , regardless of the " parity " nonsense. OS relies on their press to generate point production. Duke did a reasonable jobe of breaking the press, because unlike Huskies last season, the kept moving the ball ahead and were able to dribble thru defenders. Pressing teams don't like to be pressed . At the end of the first half with OS enjoying a lead, Duke applied pressure forcing certain players to handle the ball more . Sheldon is not a great ball handler. This cut the lead to 6 at halftime. The game was slowed down in the second half by keeping pressure on OS and slowing the game down. Second half mostly a half court game. Richardson had a big game and OS hit only one three. Duke also got to the line 29 times.
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Post by grrrrr on Mar 28, 2024 9:37:06 GMT -5
Man, I hope you are right about the 18+ cause we definitely don't need two close ones back to back.
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Post by doggydaddy on Mar 28, 2024 10:35:58 GMT -5
Man, I hope you are right about the 18+ cause we definitely don't need two close ones back to back. I hope so too. |
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Post by doggydaddy on Mar 28, 2024 10:37:35 GMT -5
How did Duke beat OS ? First of all wcbb just are not as consistent as male players as a whole from game to game , regardless of the " parity " nonsense. OS relies on their press to generate point production. Duke did a reasonable jobe of breaking the press, because unlike Huskies last season, the kept moving the ball ahead and were able to dribble thru defenders. Pressing teams don't like to be pressed . At the end of the first half with OS enjoying a lead, Duke applied pressure forcing certain players to handle the ball more . Sheldon is not a great ball handler. This cut the lead to 6 at halftime. The game was slowed down in the second half by keeping pressure on OS and slowing the game down. Second half mostly a half court game. Richardson had a big game and OS hit only one three. Duke also got to the line 29 times. OSU played poorly. They shot poorly as well.did Duke force them to play poorly and shoot poorly? Looked to me OSu started forcing their offense in the second half. |
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Post by magic on Mar 28, 2024 11:11:08 GMT -5
How did Duke beat OS ? First of all wcbb just are not as consistent as male players as a whole from game to game , regardless of the " parity " nonsense. OS relies on their press to generate point production. Duke did a reasonable jobe of breaking the press, because unlike Huskies last season, the kept moving the ball ahead and were able to dribble thru defenders. Pressing teams don't like to be pressed . At the end of the first half with OS enjoying a lead, Duke applied pressure forcing certain players to handle the ball more . Sheldon is not a great ball handler. This cut the lead to 6 at halftime. The game was slowed down in the second half by keeping pressure on OS and slowing the game down. Second half mostly a half court game. Richardson had a big game and OS hit only one three. Duke also got to the line 29 times. OSU played poorly. They shot poorly as well.did Duke force them to play poorly and shoot poorly? Looked to me OSu started forcing their offense in the second half. OSU forced the offense in the second half because scoring off pressure wasn't happening. OSU is just not an efficient half court offensive team. |
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Post by doggydaddy on Mar 28, 2024 11:30:06 GMT -5
OSU played poorly. They shot poorly as well.did Duke force them to play poorly and shoot poorly? Looked to me OSu started forcing their offense in the second half. OSU forced the offense in the second half because scoring off pressure wasn't happening. OSU is just not an efficient half court offensive team. they panicked. Took quick shots, bad shots. |
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Post by swash on Mar 28, 2024 11:47:40 GMT -5
How did Duke beat OS ? First of all wcbb just are not as consistent as male players as a whole from game to game , regardless of the " parity " nonsense. OS relies on their press to generate point production. Duke did a reasonable jobe of breaking the press, because unlike Huskies last season, the kept moving the ball ahead and were able to dribble thru defenders. Pressing teams don't like to be pressed . At the end of the first half with OS enjoying a lead, Duke applied pressure forcing certain players to handle the ball more . Sheldon is not a great ball handler. This cut the lead to 6 at halftime. The game was slowed down in the second half by keeping pressure on OS and slowing the game down. Second half mostly a half court game. Richardson had a big game and OS hit only one three. Duke also got to the line 29 times. I suspect the Duke basic game plan will: -Use a zone to force UConn to beat them from outside by anyone not named Supergirl -Try to keep the score low by using a lot of the shot clock when they have the ball -Drive past the guard defenders, forcing help from elsewhere -Trap the ball in certain planned circumstances ... such as when Brady gets it above the three point arc, or when Nika or KK pick up a dribble too early -Possibly to put the point of the zone deeper to disrupt the weave or push it further from the three point line I do not expect them to press in the backcourt very often, but as above picking their spots. For UConn: -Punish a press with quick layups or open threes early -Make it tough for them to drive and get fouled with the strong switching D -Hit perimeter shots -Crash the boards hard -Force their shot blockers to the foul line -Use the short mid-range stop and pop rather than going all the way into the rim -Get 20 or more combined points from KK and Nika -I would like to see Aaliyah re-establish herself as a threat. Syracuse mobbed her, and she essentially played decoy and rebounder. She has moves that will be very tough for shot blockers to get without fouling. I would rather see her taking those and having a few blocked than simply acquiescing. -Ash is also pretty deadly in that short jumper range. I would like to see some actions intended to put her there against a zone. Last game they mostly ran actions to get her free from deep ... which we still want, just mingle in a little of the other |
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Post by phil on Mar 28, 2024 12:36:53 GMT -5
I suspect the Duke basic game plan will: -Use a zone to force UConn to beat them from outside by anyone not named Supergirl Luckily, we have SuperShade |
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Post by yetanotherwilliams on Mar 28, 2024 13:26:03 GMT -5
With regards to stats that are useful in analyzing a defense's strength, I think points per possession, which is easily calculated, would tell much of the story. I wish announcers and sportswriters would call attention to it more often so that fans would become as familiar with what constitutes a 'good' number, as they are with shooting percentages or batting averages. There would be some anomalies (the offensive's team's foul-shooting could be exceptionally good or exceptionally bad on a given night, which would somewhat distort the numbers, but those sorts of things would probably even out in the long run. I haven't checked, but I'll bet that the percentage of foul shots made by Xavier's opponents, is not too different from the percent made by UConn's or South Carolina's. Foul shots *taken* is, of course an important factor in assessing a team's defense.
Using points per possession as a benchmark negates the need to compensate for whether either or both teams play at a fast or slow pace. Historically DePaul's opponents are going to score a lot of points simply because DePaul usually plays at a very fast pace; a lot of schools like to run a lot of time off the clock in between shots.
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Post by bulkey on Mar 28, 2024 13:33:51 GMT -5
I suspect the Duke basic game plan will: -Use a zone to force UConn to beat them from outside by anyone not named Supergirl Luckily, we have SuperShadeSo long as a freshman, playing away from home in a win-or-go-home game, can continue her pace. My fav, but holding my breath that she can continue this way.... |
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Post by linkster on Mar 29, 2024 22:11:04 GMT -5
Beating tOSU, a 2 seed, was easily Duke's biggest win this season. Over the years I've noticed that teams that celebrate any NCAA win too much lose at a high % in their next game. That's part of why UConn never cuts down nets after an E8 win. The big edge for UConn is that their head coaches have seen it all as far as NCAA's. Lawson not so much. Duke will be a two way team next year with Fournier and Roberson coming in. If Strong were to pick Duke I'd rush to bet on them winning a title in 2025 at very long odds.
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