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Post by doggydaddy on Feb 6, 2021 22:25:24 GMT -5
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Post by phil on Feb 7, 2021 10:50:51 GMT -5
Yes UC Davis was undefeated coming into Saturday's action. They played Oregon. Massey had Oregon as 35 point favorites, the largest expected margin of victory by the fair bit. Hardly worth watching right?
Except UC Davis was leading by four going into the fourth quarter. Organon finally at the rack together in the final quarter and won by six. I don't know whether Massey's predicted margin was off because the Aggies had to few games to calculate the true strength, or whether Oregon just had an off night, maybe not taking their opponents seriously, but that might've been a fun game to watch.
So UC Davis is no longer among the undefeated, and while none of the top ranked teams are undefeated, we still have two undefeated teams left.
Bucknell (my daughter's alma mater) is still undefeated at 8-0. they have a good shot at running the table as their toughest competition is at American University ranked number 203 Orbach now has a 76% chance of winning.
Cal Baptist is 16 – 0. they also have a legitimate chance at running the table as they are favored in every one of the remaining games, but they are weaker than but now up against slightly tougher competition so Massey expects they will stumble once or twice.
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Post by bulkey on Feb 7, 2021 11:22:27 GMT -5
Yes UC Davis was undefeated coming into Saturday's action. They played Oregon. Massey had Oregon as 35 point favorites, the largest expected margin of victory by the fair bit. Hardly worth watching right? Except UC Davis was leading by four going into the fourth quarter. Organon finally at the rack together in the final quarter and won by six. I don't know whether Massey's predicted margin was off because the Aggies had to few games to calculate the true strength, or whether Oregon just had an off night, maybe not taking their opponents seriously, but that might've been a fun game to watch. So UC Davis is no longer among the undefeated, and while none of the top ranked teams are undefeated, we still have two undefeated teams left. Bucknell (my daughter's alma mater) is still undefeated at 8-0. they have a good shot at running the table as their toughest competition is at American University ranked number 203 Orbach now has a 76% chance of winning. Cal Baptist is 16 – 0. they also have a legitimate chance at running the table as they are favored in every one of the remaining games, but they are weaker than but now up against slightly tougher competition so Massey expects they will stumble once or twice. You are truly one of WCBB's greatest fans, Phil. Thanks for all the info and insight you provide. |
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Post by semper on Feb 7, 2021 11:57:42 GMT -5
Love the stats!
I have butterflies over Monday.
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Post by chicagogg on Feb 7, 2021 12:01:28 GMT -5
Love the stats! I have butterflies over Monday. You are not alone in that..... |
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Post by bulkey on Feb 7, 2021 12:49:17 GMT -5
Love the stats! I have butterflies over Monday. You are not alone in that..... True, but it's what happens March 29-April 4 (Elite 8 through NC) that matters. We're not undefeated this season, so the only thing folks will remember is the final game we play. |
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Post by swash on Feb 7, 2021 13:45:34 GMT -5
You are not alone in that..... True, but it's what happens March 29-April 4 (Elite 8 through NC) that matters. We're not undefeated this season, so the only thing folks will remember is the final game we play. For most folks, that is true. SCar fans and UCONN fans ... not so much. This is also a big resume building game. Winning means a lot to the team and to the conference. A very close loss ... may not be terrible, but even a near miss where the opponent hits a three with four seconds left to put the deficit to 10 will be billed as a double-digit blowout. Defeating only BE teams (even all of them), people will argue UCONN is barely a top-15 team. They'll say the BE stinks and DePaul is barely rankable. UCONN is better, but Squeeked by TN, fell close with ARK. Those are bottom half of the rankings teams. Win, and we're a number one seed. Drop this game, and we may be a three or four ... in at-least some eyes. Can this team still compete for an NC from a terrible seed? Sure. But this is the new kids' last chance to prove to themselves that the prize is really achievable. |
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Post by semper on Feb 7, 2021 13:52:49 GMT -5
Yeah, I agree with all that and have been thinking likewise. I believe I'll be too nervous to listen. Crazy, isn't it?
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Post by doggydaddy on Feb 7, 2021 14:13:48 GMT -5
True, but it's what happens March 29-April 4 (Elite 8 through NC) that matters. We're not undefeated this season, so the only thing folks will remember is the final game we play. For most folks, that is true. SCar fans and UCONN fans ... not so much. This is also a big resume building game. Winning means a lot to the team and to the conference. A very close loss ... may not be terrible, but even a near miss where the opponent hits a three with four seconds left to put the deficit to 10 will be billed as a double-digit blowout. Defeating only BE teams (even all of them), people will argue UCONN is barely a top-15 team. They'll say the BE stinks and DePaul is barely rankable. UCONN is better, but Squeeked by TN, fell close with ARK. Those are bottom half of the rankings teams. Win, and we're a number one seed. Drop this game, and we may be a three or four ... in at-least some eyes. Can this team still compete for an NC from a terrible seed? Sure. But this is the new kids' last chance to prove to themselves that the prize is really achievable. Way over the top worry Swash.... Right now UConn is NO. 1!!! in Net rankings, the replacement system for RPI in regards to what the committee uses to do their seedings. No. 1! South Carolina is No. 3. I can see that UConn could drop to 2 or 3 in the net rankings if they lose. That's all. And if they win out if god forbid they lose to SC? Still a No. 1 seed. Mark it down. Who cares what some fans think. A 3-4 seed? It's just not happening. |
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Post by swash on Feb 7, 2021 18:30:16 GMT -5
For most folks, that is true. SCar fans and UCONN fans ... not so much. This is also a big resume building game. Winning means a lot to the team and to the conference. A very close loss ... may not be terrible, but even a near miss where the opponent hits a three with four seconds left to put the deficit to 10 will be billed as a double-digit blowout. Defeating only BE teams (even all of them), people will argue UCONN is barely a top-15 team. They'll say the BE stinks and DePaul is barely rankable. UCONN is better, but Squeeked by TN, fell close with ARK. Those are bottom half of the rankings teams. Win, and we're a number one seed. Drop this game, and we may be a three or four ... in at-least some eyes. Can this team still compete for an NC from a terrible seed? Sure. But this is the new kids' last chance to prove to themselves that the prize is really achievable. Way over the top worry Swash.... Right now UConn is NO. 1!!! in Net rankings, the replacement system for RPI in regards to what the committee uses to do their seedings. No. 1! South Carolina is No. 3. I can see that UConn could drop to 2 or 3 in the net rankings if they lose. That's all. And if they win out if god forbid they lose to SC? Still a No. 1 seed. Mark it down. Who cares what some fans think. A 3-4 seed? It's just not happening. I just don't want to deal with the yammering and trashing my favorite players by their "supporters" |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2021 18:54:46 GMT -5
For most folks, that is true. SCar fans and UCONN fans ... not so much. This is also a big resume building game. Winning means a lot to the team and to the conference. A very close loss ... may not be terrible, but even a near miss where the opponent hits a three with four seconds left to put the deficit to 10 will be billed as a double-digit blowout. Defeating only BE teams (even all of them), people will argue UCONN is barely a top-15 team. They'll say the BE stinks and DePaul is barely rankable. UCONN is better, but Squeeked by TN, fell close with ARK. Those are bottom half of the rankings teams. Win, and we're a number one seed. Drop this game, and we may be a three or four ... in at-least some eyes. Can this team still compete for an NC from a terrible seed? Sure. But this is the new kids' last chance to prove to themselves that the prize is really achievable. Way over the top worry Swash.... Right now UConn is NO. 1!!! in Net rankings, the replacement system for RPI in regards to what the committee uses to do their seedings. No. 1! South Carolina is No. 3. I can see that UConn could drop to 2 or 3 in the net rankings if they lose. That's all. And if they win out if god forbid they lose to SC? Still a No. 1 seed. Mark it down. Who cares what some fans think. A 3-4 seed? It's just not happening. I believe we'll win this game, but; either way, it's a win win because the freshmen will learn from it!! |
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