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Post by pap49cba on Feb 23, 2015 18:59:03 GMT -5
The difference among Tennessee, Baylor and Maryland is paper thin. If the Lady Vols just look like a noticeably diminished team without Harrison, which logic says is likely, then a shift will occur. And while that means the layout at the top of the bracket will change again, it doesn't mean the issue of what to do with Oregon State, perhaps Selection Monday's most intriguing subplot, goes away, either.link
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Post by phil on Feb 24, 2015 9:23:41 GMT -5
I thought the loss by TN would make Creme's job easier. Now I'm not so sure.
His latest bracketology was posted before the TN-SC game.
He hinted as to his intentions. If TN gets blown out, then TN ex Harrison is a very different team than the team that earned the one seed, and they move down. Well, they didn't win, but they didn't get blown out. It was a one point game in the final minute, it could have gone the other way. It didn't but they played the #2 team on their home court and were about as close as you can get without getting the win. If they deserve a one seed, how well should they do? They should play close on a neutral court, a few points worse on the opponent's home floor. They exceeded those expectations. Arguably, they strengthened their case for a one seed.
It will still come down to the SEC championship. Maybe SC blows them off the court. It could happen. But maybe TN, playing on a neutral court, manges to win. Then they've proven that, despite the loss of Harrison, they are for real, and deserve a one seed.
And the committee will find themselves in the interesting position of placing two teams from the SEC in top seeds, a conference that hasn't put a team in the Final Four in six years, gets half the top spots. A four loss team, which doesn't win their conference, gets a top spot while a one loss team wins the Big 12 going away and doesn't earn a top spot. A 2 loss Maryland team with a ton of quality wins doesn't get a top spot.
There will be some unhappy people if that happens.
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Post by phil on Feb 24, 2015 11:05:11 GMT -5
If I’m Kim Mulkey, here’s how I might view Crème’s latest bracketology, noting that Baylor is the 2 seed while TN is the one.
Nice start, Charlie, but you could improve it with one little fix. Swap Baylor and TN. We all get that UConn, ND and SC have the top three slots. The question is who deserves the last one seed. We do. We have a single loss in the second game of the season. Ask UConn fans how much weight to put on a single loss in the second game of the season against a team that seems to be fading now but was viewed as strong in November. Since then, we haven’t lost a game, and played in a conference that is every bit as competitive as the SEC. Except we didn’t lose any games in our conference. And we sure didn’t lose any games to unranked teams. I get that TN played a tougher schedule, but they have four, count ‘em four losses, including, if I haven’t mentioned it, a loss to an unranked team. And don’t bother pointing out that the loss was when Harrison was unavailable, she’s unavailable now.
Getting a top seed is a bit of prestige, and we deserve it
.
But… I do have to think about what we really want. Do we want prestige, or to win games. Both would be nice, but if we have to choose… we’ll let’s look at the bracket closely.
What’s the difference between being the one or two seed? Last year, it meant hosting a regional. Not this year. The path through the teams is slightly different, the one seed gets the 16 seed, and likely the 8 and the 4. The 2 seed gets the 15, the 7 and the 3. Let’s be realistic. In public, I’m going to be respectful of my first two round opponents, but if I have to worry about facing the 7 versus the 8, I can’t also be seriously arguing I deserve a one seed. So yes, I could analyze Ohio State and Green Bay, and come up with a reason I might prefer on over the other, but that would be for show. We can beat them both.
At the top end, I don’t have to worry about the other best team in the bracket. If we get the one and TN gets the 2, we have to face TN. If we get the 2 and TN gets the 1, we have to face TN. So that’s a push, and the real issue (other than prestige) is who we face in the regional semi.
The choices are Arizona State and North Carolina. Both are good programs. Arizona State is ranked ahead of UNC, so we ought to prefer the one seed and UNC. But I watched Arizona State lose to Green Bay in Florida, and I just finished saying I can’t really be worried about Green Bay. If that’s true, would I really worry about facing a team they beat? UNC manages to have some stinkers (Pitt anyone?) but the question is whether we can beat UNC when they have an off day, it is whether we can beat UNC when they have a good day. Like when they knocked off Florida State.
OK, I think we can beat UNC. I think we can beat AZ State. But frankly, I feel better about taking on AZ State. I think we can beat both, but I see more concern about UNC having a good day.
Maybe I’ll just complain publicly about getting snubbed, but privately be happy if we get to play next door in Oklahoma, and have to get through AZ State and TN to make it to Tampa.
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Post by uconncat on Feb 24, 2015 11:23:52 GMT -5
Charlie Creme@charliecreme
Tonight's loss won't move TN off the 1 line, but a Baylor win at OK on Wed could.
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Post by chicagogg on Feb 24, 2015 12:34:02 GMT -5
Bracketology note: AAC fans, it seems Charlie says that the conference may get 3 teams in the Tournament. 1 Seed: UConn, 6 seed: USF, 12 seed, Tulane. Not bad for a cobbled together conference, eh?
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Post by phil on Feb 24, 2015 12:38:11 GMT -5
Charlie Creme@charliecreme
Tonight's loss won't move TN off the 1 line, but a Baylor win at OK on Wed could. That's interesting and mildly surprising. Not that OK cannot beat Baylor, but it would be a bit of an upset for an unranked team to knock off the #3 team, one they beat by 23 points not long ago. Wouldn't you generally assume that teams will win the games they are expected to win? |
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Post by phil on Feb 24, 2015 12:44:38 GMT -5
At the moment, Charlie has Georgia not making the tournament. If that happens, it will be the first tourney missed since 1994, and only the third in NCAA tourney history.
At the moment, Charlie has Vanderbilt not making the tournament. If that happens, it will be the first tourney missed since 1999, and only the second since 1989.
Changing of the guard?
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Post by phil on Feb 24, 2015 12:57:04 GMT -5
Charlie has Arkansas in the tourney. They are currently 6-8 in conference. While there is no hard rule you need to be .500 in conference, it is quite rare to be below .500 and get in.
They have two games left, an easily winnable game against Missouri, and a game against Kentucky. On the one hand, Kentucky is ranked, so not an easy win. On the other hand, they are on a three game losing streak, including to unranked Mississippi. Can Arkansas get in with a split, or is Charlie thinking they will knock off KY?
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Post by johnnysc on Feb 25, 2015 7:22:47 GMT -5
If I’m Kim Mulkey, here’s how I might view Crème’s latest bracketology, noting that Baylor is the 2 seed while TN is the one. Nice start, Charlie, but you could improve it with one little fix. Swap Baylor and TN. We all get that UConn, ND and SC have the top three slots. The question is who deserves the last one seed. We do. We have a single loss in the second game of the season. Ask UConn fans how much weight to put on a single loss in the second game of the season against a team that seems to be fading now but was viewed as strong in November. Since then, we haven’t lost a game, and played in a conference that is every bit as competitive as the SEC. Except we didn’t lose any games in our conference. And we sure didn’t lose any games to unranked teams. I get that TN played a tougher schedule, but they have four, count ‘em four losses, including, if I haven’t mentioned it, a loss to an unranked team. And don’t bother pointing out that the loss was when Harrison was unavailable, she’s unavailable now. Getting a top seed is a bit of prestige, and we deserve it . But… I do have to think about what we really want. Do we want prestige, or to win games. Both would be nice, but if we have to choose… we’ll let’s look at the bracket closely. What’s the difference between being the one or two seed? Last year, it meant hosting a regional. Not this year. The path through the teams is slightly different, the one seed gets the 16 seed, and likely the 8 and the 4. The 2 seed gets the 15, the 7 and the 3. Let’s be realistic. In public, I’m going to be respectful of my first two round opponents, but if I have to worry about facing the 7 versus the 8, I can’t also be seriously arguing I deserve a one seed. So yes, I could analyze Ohio State and Green Bay, and come up with a reason I might prefer on over the other, but that would be for show. We can beat them both. At the top end, I don’t have to worry about the other best team in the bracket. If we get the one and TN gets the 2, we have to face TN. If we get the 2 and TN gets the 1, we have to face TN. So that’s a push, and the real issue (other than prestige) is who we face in the regional semi. The choices are Arizona State and North Carolina. Both are good programs. Arizona State is ranked ahead of UNC, so we ought to prefer the one seed and UNC. But I watched Arizona State lose to Green Bay in Florida, and I just finished saying I can’t really be worried about Green Bay. If that’s true, would I really worry about facing a team they beat? UNC manages to have some stinkers (Pitt anyone?) but the question is whether we can beat UNC when they have an off day, it is whether we can beat UNC when they have a good day. Like when they knocked off Florida State. OK, I think we can beat UNC. I think we can beat AZ State. But frankly, I feel better about taking on AZ State. I think we can beat both, but I see more concern about UNC having a good day. Maybe I’ll just complain publicly about getting snubbed, but privately be happy if we get to play next door in Oklahoma, and have to get through AZ State and TN to make it to Tampa. If you are Kim Mulkey the first thing I'd do is hire someone to figure all this out so you don't have to. If you aren't Kim Mulkey then she ought to hire you! Good stuff Phil. |
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Post by semper on Feb 25, 2015 7:39:57 GMT -5
Enjoyed the report, but no way Baylor should not be the 4th number 1 at present. Pretty certain what will happen tonight with OK. Great about three AAC teams. Hope it happens!
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Post by phil on Feb 25, 2015 22:06:07 GMT -5
Rumor has it Kim read my post and said, "dang if that don't make sense". Then told her team not to make it look like they were tanking, in other words, don't play like those Tennessee high school teams, but to make sure they lost.
They are now more likely to be a 2 seed and have an easier path to the FF, if Charlie's other picks work (which is the weak point in the theory)
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Post by phil on Feb 25, 2015 22:06:46 GMT -5
Enjoyed the report, but no way Baylor should not be the 4th number 1 at present. Pretty certain what will happen tonight with OK. New thoughts? |
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Post by davidinnaples on Feb 25, 2015 22:15:30 GMT -5
Enjoyed the report, but no way Baylor should not be the 4th number 1 at present. Pretty certain what will happen tonight with OK. New thoughts? Agree.....Losing by 4 pts to 17-9 Oklahoma is not a statement of strength....  |
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Post by semper on Feb 25, 2015 22:44:50 GMT -5
Shock to me. So I guess Charlie was right.
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Post by phil on Feb 26, 2015 8:42:51 GMT -5
If TN wins the SEC tournament, they get the one seed and we have the same seeds as last year. If not, maybe MD gets it.
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Post by phil on Feb 27, 2015 17:58:26 GMT -5
Creme is updating his bracketology. He hasn't yet posted the 64 team bracket, but he has picked his new top 16 and 20.
Louisville is now a 2 seed. Given their inability to host, this would mean that the 7 seed in their pod will host. Most of the teams in the running for a 7 seed haven’t been thinking about hosting, because they know they aren't in the running for a 4 seed – will we have an issue with some scrambling to host with little notice?
Kentucky moved from the 4 seed line to the 5 seed line. I guess he had them as a 4 before their loss to Mississippi. Their 5 point win over AR is a win, but not a very resounding one.
Tennessee remains a one seed. Baylor hurt their chances with their loss to OK, I’d like to see the analysis that picks TN over MD. On one hand, TN looked very strong against SC, but they followed that by just barely beating an anemic GA.
He now has MD in the Spokane region along with TN, so it comes down to who gets to play Oregon State or Duke. I’d much prefer taking on a fading Duke, than Oregon State, in almost a home game for them.
He moved Stanford up to a 4 seed. After their win over OR State, seems deserved.
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Post by phil on Mar 2, 2015 8:15:59 GMT -5
I'm now thinking Scar might have to win the SEC Tournament. If ND wins the ACC, which seems likely, and Scar has another loss, they may still get a one seed, but they won’t get the second one seed, it will be the one after ND. And ND is closer to Greensboro than to Oklahoma City, so if ND is the second seed, they are likely to be sent there, if they literally follow their geographical rules.
I've advocated that the selection committee should take a little looser interpretation of the geography rules; this is a perfect example of where that adjustment would work well. No ND fan is likely to say they are willing to drive the 11 hours to North Carolina, but draw the line at driving 13 hours to OK. If they go, they are flying, and the flying time it literally five minutes different—3:35 versus 3:40. They should consider those two locations are virtually identical for the purposes of distance, so could do a Pareto preferred (make someone better off, while making no one worse off) choice by sending ND to OK and keeping Scar close.
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Post by phil on Mar 2, 2015 8:16:33 GMT -5
Is there any danger that UConn will not be in Albany?
On the surface, sounds like a silly question. UConn is not just #1 they are a unanimous #1 in both polls. But remember that, officially, the poll results are not considered by the selection committee (keeping in mind that none of them, well, few of them live in caves where they might not know about the polls)
The RPI rating is not the be all and end all for the committee, but it is the starting point. UConn is not first, nor second, in fact, isn’t in the top four. They are fifth. The committee doesn't have to move them far to justify a one seed, but they do have to move them all the way to the top to justify Albany. ND currently has the top RPI in the country, and position is likely to be solidified in the conference tournament. Absent a loss, they are virtually certain to end the season as the top RPI team.
ND is closer to Greensboro than to Albany, but they are closer to Albany than OK. I think it is likely that the committee will find a way to put Scar in Greensboro, maybe even if they lose another game, but to send them to OK means moving them below not just one, but two teams with weaker RPIs.
Will they do that? I bet we all think they will, but they cannot lean on RPI or geography to make that choice. They will have to adopt a Pareto optimal approach, or just grit their teeth and ignore RPI and geography to place UConn in Albany.
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Post by phil on Mar 2, 2015 8:53:48 GMT -5
How is that for timing - Charlie just updated his results, and puts ND in Greensboro.
He also decided MD is better than TN.
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Post by phil on Mar 2, 2015 8:59:06 GMT -5
I thought Louisville was a 2 seed last week? Did I miss an update? Did I lose my mind? The 3 seed makes sense, but I don't see the arrow indicating a change, which means they were a 3 last time.
The win by Stanford over OR State earned them a hosting site, the loss to Oregon cost them, and now they may go to Starkville. Yikes.
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Post by uconncat on Mar 2, 2015 9:22:39 GMT -5
Is there any danger that UConn will not be in Albany? On the surface, sounds like a silly question. UConn is not just #1 they are a unanimous #1 in both polls. But remember that, officially, the poll results are not considered by the selection committee (keeping in mind that none of them, well, few of them live in caves where they might not know about the polls) The RPI rating is not the be all and end all for the committee, but it is the starting point. UConn is not first, nor second, in fact, isn’t in the top four. They are fifth. The committee doesn't have to move them far to justify a one seed, but they do have to move them all the way to the top to justify Albany. ND currently has the top RPI in the country, and position is likely to be solidified in the conference tournament. Absent a loss, they are virtually certain to end the season as the top RPI team. ND is closer to Greensboro than to Albany, but they are closer to Albany than OK. I think it is likely that the committee will find a way to put Scar in Greensboro, maybe even if they lose another game, but to send them to OK means moving them below not just one, but two teams with weaker RPIs. Will they do that? I bet we all think they will, but they cannot lean on RPI or geography to make that choice. They will have to adopt a Pareto optimal approach, or just grit their teeth and ignore RPI and geography to place UConn in Albany. Albany in March. Who else other than UConn fans would travel there by the thousands to watch basketball? I know the committee has these rules or principles which I admit I sometimes ignore, but the women's game does need to factor in optics, i.e., crowd shots on television. I doubt any team would be upset if they aren't sent to Albany. |
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Post by uconncat on Mar 2, 2015 9:55:36 GMT -5
Creme's projected #2 seeds are Oregon State, Tenn, Baylor and Florida State. If I'm a #1 seed I'd like to avoid Florida State.
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