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Post by doggydaddy on Jan 28, 2023 1:19:45 GMT -5
The numbers are close.
No. 2 Ohio State lost twice.
Stanford at No. 3 has 614 points.
LSU at No. 4 has 603 points.
UConn at No. 5 has 596 points.
So why UConn No. 2?
Obviously, Ohio State is out of the Top 5 so these three teams move up.
The Buckeyes have 668 points. Those 2nd place votes have to go to someone else.
LSU has the 103rd ranked schedule. UConn has No. 1. Stanford has No. 8. It's no contest. Don't reward a team for playing a weak schedule.
So No. 2 is between UConn and Stanford in my opinion.
UConn beat Tennessee by 17 points on their home court.
Stanford beat Tennessee by 7 points and were down 8 going into the fourth quarter.
Stanford is living off of their close loss to No. 1 South Carolina early in the season. But they lost to Unranked USC scoring only 46 points.
UConn lost to now No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 10 Maryland. Anyone believe they would have lost to them with the lineup they have now?
And Friday night Stanford barely beat an 11-8 Oregon State team 63-60. If you are going to use the Georgetown 15 point win as a reason to knock down UConn you have to hold this close win against Stanford. They won because they shot 18 foul shots to OSU's 2. Yes, 2 foul shots the entire game. Stanford was only called for 8 fouls and two of those were at the end of the game to interrupt Oregon State while Stanford was under the limit.
UConn is clearly the No. 2 team in the country. They pass the eye test and the logic test.
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Post by linkster on Jan 28, 2023 1:25:27 GMT -5
Unfortunately DD, the selection committee has no mention of logic in their Policies and Proceedures. And if it isn't in there they can't use it.   |
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Post by doggydaddy on Jan 28, 2023 7:01:16 GMT -5
Unfortunately DD, the selection committee has no mention of logic in their Policies and Proceedures. And if it isn't in there they can't use it. Yeah, but I’m just talking about the AP poll. I know it means nothing, but it still bugs me. |
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Post by justinesguy on Jan 28, 2023 9:20:42 GMT -5
IMHO UCONN has been number 2 since the season started.
They get a chance to topple that mountain next month.
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Post by phil on Jan 28, 2023 9:59:41 GMT -5
And Friday night Stanford barely beat an 11-8 Oregon State team 63-60. If you are going to use the Georgetown 15 point win as a reason to knock down UConn you have to hold this close win against Stanford. I just finished watching the game. Oregon State is 11 – 9 , ranked number 49 by Massey, expected to lose to Stanford by 15. The game was tied with under two minutes to go. Stanford scored to go up by two. Then, with 23 seconds to go, Stanford with the ball, Oregon State had a foul to give, so von Oelhoffen fouled, forcing Stanford to inbounds. The commentators noted it was her fourth foul so if they were going to send Stanford to the foul line, it had to be someone else. Stanford inbounds into Jones in the backcourt. Someone, I think it was Bendu Yeaney, tried to time the inbounds pass and almost succeeded. Jones seemed to be standing there glaring at the almost steal, and von Oelhoffen came from behind Jones, intending to grab the ball and going for in for an uncontested layup to tie the game. Unfortunately her arm hit Jones's arm while stealing the ball and she was called for the foul. Not only did it send Jones to the line but it meant she fouled out. Jones hit only one of two, giving Oregon State the ball down three, but Oregon State's best three-point shooter was von Oelhoffen, now sitting on the bench. They had a couple shots at it but failed. We've all seen games where a final margin of three points can be misleading, maybe a team is down six with seconds to go and it's a three pointer near the buzzer, so the game outcomes not really in doubt, but in this game Oregon state had a realistic chance of winning, or at least taking it to OT. I generally give the nod to the higher ranked team OT but how well that worked out for UCLA at Colorado. So yes, eking out a three point when when expected to win by 15 ought to be reason for a small downgrade and that's all it takes. |
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Post by phil on Jan 28, 2023 10:18:12 GMT -5
Unfortunately, there may be (emphasis on "may") a flaw in your analysis. While you are absolutely right that the strength of schedule of UConn is far better than LSU, That's already baked into the cake. LSU had more points than UConn, 603 to 596, in the last poll, and that reflected the relative strength the schedules of the team. However, while I think you'll agree that no voter is going to wake up between last weekend this week and change the view of the relative strengths of schedules, your point is that with Ohio State's losses there are some points to give, and all I don't think they will take points away from LSU, they don't need to, they just have to give them to UConn. Other challenging fact is that LSU demolished Alabama last Monday after the vote, so that's new information, and while yes Alabama is unranked, they were getting votes in the poll. Massey had LSU of five point favorite in the game and they won by 38. That single name has done more to reassess my view of LSU than any other game, so all that is a chance, I don't think UConn passes LSU.
This leaves me with a little dilemma. I think a better case can be made for moving UConn ahead of Stamford than moving them ahead of LSU, but I'm struggling to imagine how the voters could justify moving Stamford behind LSU.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2023 10:41:19 GMT -5
The numbers are close. No. 2 Ohio State lost twice. Stanford at No. 3 has 614 points. LSU at No. 4 has 603 points. UConn at No. 5 has 596 points. So why UConn No. 2? Obviously, Ohio State is out of the Top 5 so these three teams move up. The Buckeyes have 668 points. Those 2nd place votes have to go to someone else. LSU has the 103rd ranked schedule. UConn has No. 1. Stanford has No. 8. It's no contest. Don't reward a team for playing a weak schedule. So No. 2 is between UConn and Stanford in my opinion. UConn beat Tennessee by 17 points on their home court. Stanford beat Tennessee by 7 points and were down 8 going into the fourth quarter. Stanford is living off of their close loss to No. 1 South Carolina early in the season. But they lost to Unranked USC scoring only 46 points. UConn lost to now No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 10 Maryland. Anyone believe they would have lost to them with the lineup they have now? And Friday night Stanford barely beat an 11-8 Oregon State team 63-60. If you are going to use the Georgetown 15 point win as a reason to knock down UConn you have to hold this close win against Stanford. They won because they shot 18 foul shots to OSU's 2. Yes, 2 foul shots the entire game. Stanford was only called for 8 fouls and two of those were at the end of the game to interrupt Oregon State while Stanford was under the limit. UConn is clearly the No. 2 team in the country. They pass the eye test and the logic test. UConn is clearly the #2 team, but the bias of some of the voters for the AP & USA Today Polls is nauseating? This past week, a few had UConn @ # 7 and that's just ignorant on their part. Even Creme with his bracketology blabbers on about the suspect resume UConn has due to their injuries? There's clearly some UConn hate or fatigue on the part of some voters and there's the double standard put on paper by Creme. Due to their numerous injuries, UConn can't be that good and their resume is iffy? Yet he doesn't use the same logic when Ohio State has injuries and starts losing? Massey has UConn @ #2 and they've inched slightly closer to South Carolina since their excellent win @ Tennessee. Per Massey, UConn has both the #4 offense and defense in DI WBB. Massey Ratings are calculated without any human bias and based on statistical metrics. masseyratings.com/cbw/ncaa-d1/ratingsEven the NCAA NET Rankings have UConn @ #2, but we don't know by what margin because they don't tell us? www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-net-rankings |
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Post by phil on Jan 28, 2023 10:43:48 GMT -5
> Even the NCAA NET Rankings have UConn @ #2, but we don't know by what margin because they don't tell us?
Not only do they fail to tell us the margin, they don't even explain how it's calculated. There are multiple places listing some of the elements but I haven't found any place that goes into the mathematics.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2023 10:55:58 GMT -5
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Post by rukia on Jan 28, 2023 11:29:21 GMT -5
Another unimpressive win by Stanford last night.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2023 11:31:49 GMT -5
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Post by phil on Jan 28, 2023 13:19:43 GMT -5
I don't want to shoot the messenger. I asked for more information about how net was calculated and you provided the most in-depth discussion I've seen, so for that I thank you.
That said, the article states:
There's a lot of words in that article which can be summarized as "we don't know"
If the goal was to penalize teams for plain cupcakes it's been an abysmal failure, so much so that I won't be surprised if teams are actively thinking about changing to the LSU model. That may take two years because many of next years games are under contract, but it could be a disaster.
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Post by huskyharper on Jan 28, 2023 18:43:54 GMT -5
the problem as I see it with changing to the LSU model is simple: how many FF's or NC's have teams with that model achieved? If that is the stated goal of a team (say, UCONN) then playing cupcakes does not an NC-capable team make.
Unless of course it is a VERY DOWN year in WCBB and there are no strong teams to be had.
But since the goal of UCONN is conference regular and tournament championships and national championships, a course of cupcakes will not suffice. This team needs strong protein in their diet! And Geno gives it, every single year.
IMHO. of course.
I did not stay at a Holiday Inne last night.
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Post by dreamseason on Jan 28, 2023 23:44:20 GMT -5
We are #2 but the reality is that there is a chasm between #1 and the next tier, of which we are one. This season is like last season and like next season. It is all a nice diversion from our daily lives but nothing more unless we can figure out how to beat SC.
Having said that, we added the capabilities that were critical to beating SC. And those are reflected in the players that are currently on the floor. We have greatly improved our ability to cut, drive and finish through contact. And we have greatly improved our ability to score in the mid-range.
The problem is that we needed to add those capabilities to what we already had in Azzi and Paige in order to surpass SC. Lou can somewhat make up for Azzi but she isn't replacing both. We may or may not see Azzi back. Either way, we still aren't beating SC in the final four. We need THIS team plus Paige. Adding Azzi too would give us tremendous depth that would also allow us to press and hide our rebounding weakness. We are simply missing too many pieces and probably the most critical one. We are #2. But we are UConn and, for us, there is little difference between #2 and #3 or #4.
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Post by rukia on Jan 29, 2023 0:00:42 GMT -5
The Toronto Raptors won the NBA championship after Kevin Durant got hurt and Klay Thompson got hurt. Were they the best team that year? I am not sure they were. But they put themselves into position to take advantage of those injuries and won the championship. UConn or any other team that wants to contend, just needs to hang around in March and see what happens.
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Post by linkster on Jan 29, 2023 2:46:21 GMT -5
We are #2 but the reality is that there is a chasm between #1 and the next tier, of which we are one. This season is like last season and like next season. It is all a nice diversion from our daily lives but nothing more unless we can figure out how to beat SC. Having said that, we added the capabilities that were critical to beating SC. And those are reflected in the players that are currently on the floor. We have greatly improved our ability to cut, drive and finish through contact. And we have greatly improved our ability to score in the mid-range. The problem is that we needed to add those capabilities to what we already had in Azzi and Paige in order to surpass SC. Lou can somewhat make up for Azzi but she isn't replacing both. We may or may not see Azzi back. Either way, we still aren't beating SC in the final four. We need THIS team plus Paige. Adding Azzi too would give us tremendous depth that would also allow us to press and hide our rebounding weakness. We are simply missing too many pieces and probably the most critical one. We are #2. But we are UConn and, for us, there is little difference between #2 and #3 or #4. You make good points about UConn and their limitations. I look at SCar and I see a less than optimum team, not the same team as last year despite only losing their pg. They have had problems scoring points and they aren't playing with the same energy. In many ways they remind me of the 2013 Baylor team. After winning the title in 2012 they waltzed into the 2013 NCAA's undefeated and lost in the S16. They were bigger favorites in 2013 than SCar is this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see somebody get hot from 3 in the second half and outscore SCar before the FF. |
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Post by yetanotherwilliams on Jan 29, 2023 2:49:31 GMT -5
I think all of t
We have a game coming up against South Carolina. If we win it, and are not chosen #1 there will be plenty of time and opportunity to complain later. If we lose by a narrow margin and are not then chosen #2, there may be a case for complaint. If we lose by a significant margin, my hat's off to South Carolina and we don't deserve a top seed or a top ranking.
Regardless of the rankings and the seeds, a candidate for the national championship had better be prepared to beat formidable opponents on neutral or even hostile courts. If we're not capable of doing that, I don't think we belong in the championship discussion.
I *do* think we are capable of getting to the Final Four and hopefully beyond, barring further misfortune. If we don't, the fault is ours, not Charlie Creme's and not the selection committee's. If we have to get by LSU, for example, and come up short, all this talk about their cupcake schedule will have been nothing but a colossal waste of time.
It may be fun to talk about the rankings and seeds, but, as Hamlet observed, "The play's the thing"
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Post by swash on Jan 29, 2023 7:27:27 GMT -5
We are #2 but the reality is that there is a chasm between #1 and the next tier, of which we are one. This season is like last season and like next season. It is all a nice diversion from our daily lives but nothing more unless we can figure out how to beat SC. Having said that, we added the capabilities that were critical to beating SC. And those are reflected in the players that are currently on the floor. We have greatly improved our ability to cut, drive and finish through contact. And we have greatly improved our ability to score in the mid-range. The problem is that we needed to add those capabilities to what we already had in Azzi and Paige in order to surpass SC. Lou can somewhat make up for Azzi but she isn't replacing both. We may or may not see Azzi back. Either way, we still aren't beating SC in the final four. We need THIS team plus Paige. Adding Azzi too would give us tremendous depth that would also allow us to press and hide our rebounding weakness. We are simply missing too many pieces and probably the most critical one. We are #2. But we are UConn and, for us, there is little difference between #2 and #3 or #4. SCar isn't invincible. They're bigger, deeper, and also flawed. They haven't shot the ball well except from 8 feet or closer. A huge % of their points are layups and putbacks. Their defense is very good, but most of their games they struggle to hit 70. That's enough if you opponent is in the 50s. But who have they beaten lately that means something? They will ... and should be ... expected to win in Hartford coming up. But, the days when the favorites always win are gone. Without Azzi and Caroline a tough task becomes even harder, but ... UCONN as constituted today is better than Stanford was when they played the Gamecocks into OT. Sure it's a huge task, but how great would it be to hand them their only two losses all year? And if we get that far... With the game on the line, I like our chances with LLS from the arc. The team has been better at the freethrow stripe, too. Chin up. No need to abandon this campaign just yet. |
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Post by doggydaddy on Jan 29, 2023 8:28:41 GMT -5
We are #2 but the reality is that there is a chasm between #1 and the next tier, of which we are one. This season is like last season and like next season. It is all a nice diversion from our daily lives but nothing more unless we can figure out how to beat SC. Having said that, we added the capabilities that were critical to beating SC. And those are reflected in the players that are currently on the floor. We have greatly improved our ability to cut, drive and finish through contact. And we have greatly improved our ability to score in the mid-range. The problem is that we needed to add those capabilities to what we already had in Azzi and Paige in order to surpass SC. Lou can somewhat make up for Azzi but she isn't replacing both. We may or may not see Azzi back. Either way, we still aren't beating SC in the final four. We need THIS team plus Paige. Adding Azzi too would give us tremendous depth that would also allow us to press and hide our rebounding weakness. We are simply missing too many pieces and probably the most critical one. We are #2. But we are UConn and, for us, there is little difference between #2 and #3 or #4. We are doomed!!!!!! My initial post in this thread was specific to the AP poll, and not becoming No. 1. That will be determined next week. Having said that, South Carolina is beatable. They are not a good shooting team. Especially from deep. As big as their roster is, they only go 8 deep. Boston is not as dominant as last year. They miss last years point guard. Certainly getting back Fudd back would be huge, but that probably won't be until they meet in the finals again. I disagree about the rebounding weakness. Yes, Tennessee outrebounded UConn in the last game, but the Huskies are 4th in rebounding margin. It is NOT a weakness. They may get outrebounded by South Carolina, but they should outshoot the Gamecocks. I'd love to have Fudd and Ducharme back for the game, but it's probably not going to happen. I still like the Huskies chances to pull off the upset. |
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Post by bulkey on Jan 29, 2023 9:43:10 GMT -5
Great swash and DD!
If Azzi comes back at some point in the season, then we are without doubt in my mind, the best team in WCBB.
Even without her, we're an elite team. An elite team that absolutely needs, and gets, superior play in the front court .
Playing against South Carolina this week will test that front court, and that's only a good thing for down the road.
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Post by dreamseason on Jan 29, 2023 14:48:20 GMT -5
We are #2 but the reality is that there is a chasm between #1 and the next tier, of which we are one. This season is like last season and like next season. It is all a nice diversion from our daily lives but nothing more unless we can figure out how to beat SC. Having said that, we added the capabilities that were critical to beating SC. And those are reflected in the players that are currently on the floor. We have greatly improved our ability to cut, drive and finish through contact. And we have greatly improved our ability to score in the mid-range. The problem is that we needed to add those capabilities to what we already had in Azzi and Paige in order to surpass SC. Lou can somewhat make up for Azzi but she isn't replacing both. We may or may not see Azzi back. Either way, we still aren't beating SC in the final four. We need THIS team plus Paige. Adding Azzi too would give us tremendous depth that would also allow us to press and hide our rebounding weakness. We are simply missing too many pieces and probably the most critical one. We are #2. But we are UConn and, for us, there is little difference between #2 and #3 or #4. SCar isn't invincible. They're bigger, deeper, and also flawed. They haven't shot the ball well except from 8 feet or closer. A huge % of their points are layups and putbacks. Their defense is very good, but most of their games they struggle to hit 70. That's enough if you opponent is in the 50s. But who have they beaten lately that means something? They will ... and should be ... expected to win in Hartford coming up. But, the days when the favorites always win are gone. Without Azzi and Caroline a tough task becomes even harder, but ... UCONN as constituted today is better than Stanford was when they played the Gamecocks into OT. Sure it's a huge task, but how great would it be to hand them their only two losses all year? And if we get that far... With the game on the line, I like our chances with LLS from the arc. The team has been better at the freethrow stripe, too. Chin up. No need to abandon this campaign just yet. Our biggest issue is scoring against a "physical" defense. SC has the best and most physical defense. We are struggling to score against Nova because the damn refs refuse to call fouls and get control of the physicality of the game. As I type this, Lou got hurt. If the refs call nothing in the SC game, we are indeed doomed. |
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Post by bulkey on Jan 29, 2023 15:03:03 GMT -5
SCar isn't invincible. They're bigger, deeper, and also flawed. They haven't shot the ball well except from 8 feet or closer. A huge % of their points are layups and putbacks. Their defense is very good, but most of their games they struggle to hit 70. That's enough if you opponent is in the 50s. But who have they beaten lately that means something? They will ... and should be ... expected to win in Hartford coming up. But, the days when the favorites always win are gone. Without Azzi and Caroline a tough task becomes even harder, but ... UCONN as constituted today is better than Stanford was when they played the Gamecocks into OT. Sure it's a huge task, but how great would it be to hand them their only two losses all year? And if we get that far... With the game on the line, I like our chances with LLS from the arc. The team has been better at the freethrow stripe, too. Chin up. No need to abandon this campaign just yet. Our biggest issue is scoring against a "physical" defense. SC has the best and most physical defense. We are struggling to score against Nova because the damn refs refuse to call fouls and get control of the physicality of the game. As I type this, Lou got hurt. If the refs call nothing in the SC game, we are indeed doomed. I think Lou's okay. She got bumped around in a scrum. That happens. I think Geno actually is okay with the way the refs are calling this. It's bad luck that Aubrey got her 3rd foul (the 3rd foul was inevitably called even if Maddy jumped into her). I agree that UConn has not traditionally played well against a physical defense. UConn plays a finesse game. I love them for that (even though I thought of myself as a physical player), and accept they will struggle sometimes. |
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Post by dreamseason on Jan 29, 2023 17:17:41 GMT -5
I think Lou's okay. She got bumped around in a scrum. That happens. I think Geno actually is okay with the way the refs are calling this. It's bad luck that Aubrey got her 3rd foul (the 3rd foul was inevitably called even if Maddy jumped into her). I agree that UConn has not traditionally played well against a physical defense. UConn plays a finesse game. I love them for that (even though I thought of myself as a physical player), and accept they will struggle sometimes. Thank God! And, yes, we have always struggled against a physical defense because it is really hard to cut or drive or shoot while being fouled. We usually end up settling for 3s. The antidote is to hit mid-range shots, which didn't go as well today. The other key is finishing through contact. That also didn't go as well today. That is it. That is why you saw what you saw. But, I have to say, Aubrey and Aaliyah have greatly improved their mid-range games and finishing through contact. They are critical against teams like this. Dorka has also improved her mid-range game but still struggles to finish through contact. Is her size critical against a team like this or SC? Not sure. Nika is our only point guard. She is critical. Lou is good at both the three and mid-range. Is she critical in these games? Don't know. Where I am going is what to do if, by some miracle, Azzi and Caroline do come back. I am losing hope but it is possible. Honestly, if it happens, I think they should both come off the bench. |
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